Forecasting Milk Prices: Nearly Two Decades of Price Variation

15th Annual National Workshop for Dairy Economists and Policy Analysts

Chicago, IL

April 24-25, 2008

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	The Workshop brochure may be downloaded here.
	The program registration may be downloaded here.
	The list of program attendees can be downloaded here.

You should register for the workshop by calling Pam Staub (607) 255-7827 at Cornell University or filling out the form above. The registration fee for the program is $300. The hotel for the workshop is the Westin O'Hare, 6100 River Road, Rosemont, IL. Rooms are available by calling (888) 627-8517. Please identify yourself with the "Cornell Dairy Workshop" for the room block rate of $175.

Slides	Paper			Thursday, April 24, 2008
				7:00	Registration and Breakfast--Provided
				8:15	Welcome--Andrew Novakovic, Cornell University
				8:30	Session I: The Nature of Variation in Dairy Prices--Andrew Novakovic, Cornell University
					Regulated, Farm, Wholesale, and Retail Prices--Mark Stephenson, Cornell University
					Comparison with Other Agricultural Commodity and Food Items--David Anderson, Texas A&M University
				9:45	Break
				10:00	Session II: Origins of Price Variation in the 21st Century--Hal Harris, Clemson University, moderator
					Milk Production--Bill Herndon, Mississippi State University
					Dairy Demand--Andrew Novakovic, Cornell University
					Plant Demand--William Schiek, Dairy Institute of California
				12:30	Lunch--Provided
				1:30	Session III: What do Managers Need and What Do They Do with Price Forecasts--Paul Christ, Saint Mary's University, moderator
					Industry Panel-- Phil Plourd, Blimling and Associates; Sam Miller, M&I Bank; Christian Edmiston, Kraft; Suzie Arnold, U.S. Foodservice
				3:00	Break
				3:30	Session IVa: How Do We Forecast Prices (models) and What Are the Data (variables)? --Mark Stephenson, Cornell University, moderator
					Industry Panel--Jim Miller, ERS (retired); Mary Ledman, Keough Ledman Associates; Bob Cropp, University of Wisconsin–Madison; Craig Alexander, O-AT-KA Milk Products
				5:00	Adjourn
				5:30	Reception and hosted bar
				Friday, April 25, 2008
				7:00	Breakfast--Provided
				8:00	Welcome--Mark Stephenson, Cornell University
				8:15	Session IVb: How Do We Forecast Prices (models) and What Are the Data (variables)? --Mark Stephenson, Cornell University
					Bayesian Statistical Modeling--Cameron Thraen, the Ohio State University
					Structural Econometric Modeling--Scott Brown, FAPRI
				10:15	Break
				10:30	Session IVb (continued)
					Box-Jenkins Modeling--Andrew Novakovic, Cornell University
					Spectral Decomposition--Charles Nicholson, Cornell University
				11:30	Session V: Policy Options --Andrew Novakovic, Cornell University
				12:30	Adjourn